The $200M Gut Check That Taught Me Intuition Isn't Magic

How I learned that what looks like instinct is actually practical thinking skills in disguise—and the three-step framework that makes it reliable

I dismissed Twitter as "the stupidest pivot I've ever seen" and stopped paying attention entirely. That "stupid" idea became worth $40 billion.

Two years later, my gut screamed "no" about a $200M acquisition that looked perfect on paper. I investigated that feeling and discovered the company would go bankrupt within 18 months—saving us from losing $200M.

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